Just like gold bullion, silver prices have come under severe scrutiny lately. Many in the mainstream say silver prices are in a bear market.
According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the amount of bearish bets is inching closer to bullish bets on silver for the first time since 2007. (Source: Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2013.) This means that the number of investors turning bearish on silver prices is increasing. From trading just above $30.00 at the beginning of 2013, silver prices have declined below $27.00, or by 10%.
But what holds true is that just like gold bullion, the fundamentals behind silver prices are strong as well.
In a report issued by GFMS Thomson Reuters and commissioned by the Silver Institute in November of 2012, average industrial demand for silver in 2000 was 383.3 million ounces (Moz). By 2008, this number increased to 492.7 Moz. In spite of the deep downturn in the U.S. economy and global uncertainty, silver industrial demand reached new heights by 2010—499.6 Moz. For the years 2012 to 2014, GFMS Thomson Reuters estimates the average silver industrial demand to be around 483.3 Moz per year. (Source: “The Outlook for Silver Industrial Demand,” GFMS Thomson Reuters, November 2012.)
From the supply side, silver production hasn’t increased as much as the demand. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that, in 2011, worldwide silver mine production was 23,300 tons, or 821.8 Moz. By 2012, silver mine production only increased by little more than three percent. (Source: “Mineral Commodity Summaries,” U.S. Geological Survey, January 2013.)
Now bring in the investment demand (which I believe will drive the silver prices higher), and we see the real picture for silver.
The Istanbul Gold Exchange reported that imports of silver into Turkey increased 31% in March from a month earlier. The country imported 6.19 tons of the grey metal in March alone. (Source: Bloomberg, April 2, 2013.) Similar to gold bullion, silver has been known as the savior of wealth when the fiat currency takes an ugly turn.
The demand for silver is still present (if not increasing), and the long-term rise in silver prices is still intact. As I have stated in these pages before, paper money printing by central banks will eventually result in higher inflation as compared to now. The correction in silver prices that we are currently seeing is very normal and healthy for the long-term bull market in silver.
Friday, April 5th, 2013
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential